W. Pa Ffordd i Fyny

Introduction
An activity on probability. Children first collect data on the frequency of positions a thrown object can
fall into, order these by likelihood, then find the number relations involved. They then use the number
relations they found to construct a scoring system for a game of chance. This requires the use of inverse
proportionality
This activity has two episodes. Each episode consists of an introduction, paired or group work
and whole class sharing. The session must finish with a whole class reflection phase,
regardless of how far the class has got.
Episode 1:
Children discuss the possible outcomes for throwing a model pig (or a substitute). They also consider what
might be the most and least likely positions. In the discussion, they agree on the full set of the position
labels. In groups, the children throw the pig and record in a tally the outcomes of 20 (or 50) throws each.
Each group’s throws are totalled on the board. A visual method is used to enable intuitive comparisons,
for example, a circle could be used for each 10, with parts rounded to semi-circles.
The outcomes are compared with the children’s intuitive judgement on the most and least likely positions.
This should lead to finding the approximate multiplicative relationships between them, for example, ‘Spot-
up is twice as likely as Upright, but 10 times more likely than On-nose. With advanced classes, percentages
could be used, rounded to the nearest 5 per cent.
Episode 2:
Children are asked to devise a scoring system, say, using the numbers 1-10, in which each of the positions
is awarded a number of points. In the sharing phase, inverse relationships and proportionality are
discussed. The scoring system is then tested, discussed and refined as necessary, with the further sharing
of reasons for changes.
Reflection
Children go over the steps of moving from intuitive judgement to systematically collecting data, and
analysing it. They talk about other games of chance such as heads or tails and dice, and how these are
similar or dissimilar.
BEFORE YOU TEACH
You need the pigs in the game ‘Pass the pig’, or standard alternative blocks with seven faces, at least
six of which the block is able to land on and each of which should be marked with a different design.
Plan the layout for collecting the results from all groups on the board, allowing space for visual
comparisons and totals. Children need previous experience of tallying.

License

Gwersi PCAME a Dewch i Feddwl Mathemateg (9 i 11 oed) Copyright © by Ann Longfield, David Johnson, Jean Hindshaw, Linda Harvey, Jeremy Hodgen, Michael Shayer, Mundher Adhami, Rosemary Hafeez, Matt Davidson, Sally Dubben, Lynda Maple, and Sarah Seleznyov. All Rights Reserved.

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